A terrible prediction came out of the United Kingdom yesterday - experts there believe that it is possibly (if not probable) that the Internet will grind to a halt in around 8 years. The gloomy forecast is based on a number of models that suggest it will be impossible to facilitate bandwidth speeds high enough to cater for the Internet's enormity. The prediction is being taken so seriously in the UK that a meeting of
the Royal Society has been called for May 11, 2015 where experts will discuss possible solutions.
Despite the fiber revolution that has fueled the growth of the Internet, around 75% of the fiber systems that have already been laid to accommodate Internet activity are close to (or have already reached) their maximum as far as ability to transfer data is concerned. Replacing or adding fiber might be possible, but it would produce a twofold increase in Internet costs for end users. Regardless of costs, it is unlikely that enough fiber can be added to keep abreast of current data-hungry trends like Internet TV. At some stage, demand will outgrow capacity.
"It is harder and harder to keep ahead," Professor Andrew Ellis of Birmingham's Aston University was reported as saying in the UK newspaper, the Daily Mirror. "We are starting to reach the point in the research lab where we can't get any more data into a single optical fiber. The deployment to market is about six to eight years behind the research lab -- so within eight years that will be it, we can't get any more data in. Demand is increasingly catching up. It is growing again and again, and it is harder and harder to keep ahead. Unless we come forward with really radical ideas, we are going to see costs dramatically increase".
What do you think? Is it likely the Internet will grind to a halt? Let us know your thoughts. Add your comments below.
